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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-08-23T02:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-23T02:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32987/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME visible to the west/southwest in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of the CME may be a filament and possible flare starting around 2024-08-23T01:00Z from AR13794 (N20W30) based on SDO/AIA 131 and 304. Dimming is also visible to the SW of the eruption location - best seen in SDO/AIA 211. | Arrival Signature: Interplanetary shock detected by ACE at L1 at 2024-08-27T07:33Z, characterized by sudden increase in B-total from 3nT to 8nT, shortly thereafter rising to 11.8nT. Simultaneous increase in solar wind speed from 250 km/s to 325 km/s, increase in temperature from 15,000 Kelvin to 87,000 Kelvin, and increase in density from 2 p/cc to 16 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-27T07:33Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-26T20:33Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 41.6667%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.75 - 4.75
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -3205.38 hour(s)
Difference: 11.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z

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